If not now, when?
By: Thomas L. Friedman
Nobody is supporting more strongly the success of the movement for democracy in the Arab world to me. However, even if things go well, this will be a long and winding road. Now intelligent action to follow is to impose a tax of one dollar to gasoline, which would be introduced gradually over five cents each month of 2012, and all the money would go to deficit reduction. Legislation on a higher price for energy today, which comes into force in the future, notes Princeton economist Alan Blinder, would trigger a change in procurement and investment long before the tax takes effect. With a small gasoline tax can be more economic and strategic security, helping to sell more Chevy Volts and free to lobby openly for democratic values \u200b\u200bin the Middle East no longer worry that this would hurt our oil interests. Yes, it would mean higher fuel prices, but prices are rising anyway, friends. We capture some of that for us.
It's time. During the past 50 years, the U.S. (and Europe and Asia) has treated the Middle East just as if it were a large number of stations: Saudi station, station Iran, Kuwait station, Station Iraq, UAE season, and so on. Our message to the region has indeed been consistent: "Friends (only talked to men), here's the deal: keep your pumps open, low oil prices, do not bother much to the Israelis and, as far as we are concerned can do whatever they want over there. They can deprive its people of any civil right they please. Can participate in all the corruption they want. They can preach all they want from their intolerance mosques. Be printed in their newspapers every conspiracy theory they please upon us. Can keep its women as illiterate as you want. They can create any great assistance type economy without any capacity for innovation, that they want. Can give an inferior education to their youth as much as they want. Just keep your pumps open, low oil prices, do not bother much to the Jews and can do what they like over there. "
That attitude was what enabled the Arab world are isolate history over the past 50 years, which was ruled for decades by the same kings and dictators. But history is back. The combination of rising food prices, huge masses of unemployed youth and social networks that are enabling these young people organize against their leaders is breaking all barriers of fear that held sway these kleptocracies.
But fasten your seatbelts. This will not be a leisurely stroll, as the cap is exploding on an entire region with weak institutions, low social activity and virtually no democratic tradition or culture of innovation. The UN Report Arab Human Development in 2002, warned us of all that, but the Arab League said that the report was ignored in the Arab world, while West did a blind eye. However, that report, compiled by a group of Arab intellectuals headed by Nader Fergany, statistical Egyptian was prophetic. Deserves a new reading today to assess the degree of difficulty just have this transition.
The report stated that the Arab world is suffering from three major deficits: lack of education, lack of freedom and lack of power to their wives. A summary of the report, published in the Middle East Quarterly in the fall of 2002, detailed the key evidence: the gross domestic product throughout the Arab world taken as a whole was lower than that of Spain. The per capita investment in education in Arab countries fell by 20% compared with that of industrialized countries in 1980, remaining at 10% to mid 90's. As the number of scientific publications per unit population, the average production in the Arab world per million inhabitants amounted to almost 2% of that recorded by any industrialized country.
When compiled the report, the Arab world translated about 330 books a year, fifth translating part of Greece. In the Freedom House indices, Arab countries had the lowest score among seven regions of the world for freedom in the late 90's. In the twenty-first century, the Arab world was more than 60 million illiterate adults, most of whom were women. Yemen could become the first country in the world runs out of water in 10 years.
This is the "stability" protected provided that all these dictators: the stability of society frozen in time.
for themselves and the world would be enormously beneficial to see the Arab movement for democracy in Egypt and other parts to be successful in modernizing of their countries. We must do what we can to help. However, no one should have no illusions regarding the degree of difficulty and convulsions generated by the return of Arab history. We will support him, not stand in the road.
* Columnist for The New York Times, won his third Pulitzer Prize for editorials in 2002.
published in the print edition of February 27, 2011: http://www.elespectador.com/impreso/columna-253407-si-no-ahora-cuando
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